Samsonite! I was way off (NFL Version)

We all love to be right.
In fantasy, that manifests in choosing the optimal lineup each week regardless of what your highest score could be. It could be a team with a lower possible score beating the team with the higher possible score. It could be a team with the highest possible score competing for name-changing rights for the following week.
Being right in fantasy comes into play when trades are made. Did you expect the guy to fall off production? Did you think the draft pick you got is going to be your next stud? It’s being right about a guy when you hold onto him despite 0-3 points every week for two years and then BAM he gets the starting job.

But we’re not always right. In fact, we’re wrong a fair amount of the time. Even when we’re so sure of ourselves, it doesn’t work out.
The title of this article comes from the following clip in Dumb and Dumber. For those that haven’t seen it:

So I want to ask you, league. What fantasy football decisions/players/scenarios were you WAY OFF about?
This thread will give us a chance to really showcase the bonehead decisions we’ve made in fantasy football over the years. Sometimes, you just gotta call it like it is.

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In the initial draft, there were a number of good rookie receivers to pick from. The one I was way less excited about that I should have been was Mike Evans. I knew he was a big guy, but I thought he would be slow because of his size and never break into that top 15 WR tier.
I was way off.

Brock Osweiler signed a GINORMOUS contract with the Houston Texans going into the 2016 season. I never thought he’d be MVP, but I figured he couldn’t do worse than top 20 after being hand picked by Elway.
I was way off.

I thought Montee Ball was going to be the guy for Denver and Terrance West in Cleveland.
I thought Cordarelle Patterson was going to be everything Tavon Austin wasn’t.
I thought the Saints defense was going to turn it around when they signed Jairus Byrd. They got worse :sweat_smile:
I thought Matt Ryan would never be worse than QB16 and better than QB5 (he was QB19 in 2015. QB2 in 2016)

I legitimately (still) think that Tim Tebow was the best Eagles QB in that one preseason…

  1. Freaking Mark Sanchez. Before my time in this league, but whatever. Two good seasons, and then what? I stuck with him because I knew him growing up, but boy was that a bad move

  1. After Charcandrick West blew up in Jamaal Charles’ absence, I assumed he’d be the clear starter, kind of like how Devonta Freeman took Tevin Coleman’s job. They did West real dirty after he put up consistently great performances

  2. Stone hands Vance!!! Holmie had a few good games I guess, but he wasn’t the next Gronk.

  3. Josh Gordon. Wow. I don’t think he was ever on my team, but I thought for sure he’d turn it around by now. I still hope he does. I’ll be the first to pick him if his reinstatement is announced

  4. PAUL PERKINS. There’s still time, but man did he look promising at the start of this season…

I’d love to put more thought into this because there are a number of people i’ve been wrong about…a huge number in fact lol.

But #1 that comes to mind is my friend, Colin Kaepernick.

At the time, he had burst onto the scene. I was a fan of Kap from the moment we (49ers) traded up to pick him in the 2nd round and knew it was a matter of time. I was right, at first, and even surprised at how good he was. Ridiculous plays on the ground, and the ability to launch a deep ball.

But then he regressed, became fairly average. And now, due to various reasons we wont get into here, is unemployed.

  1. How does someone who has the best QB of all time, the best TE of all time, and one of the breakout RBs that no one saw coming possibly have anything to say that he did wrong? Well, I did think Shaun Draughn was going to be relevant in any way. Whoops.

  2. Roberto Aguayo. Yeah.

  3. I thought the No Care Bear had one last season in him. Nope. No he did not.

I traded away Todd Gurley.

I flipped a coin between Carson Wentz and Braxton Miller.

I’ve made a ton of trades to get the “best guys” and have consistently underperformed the last two seasons.

I was 1 spot below jon cook in the waiver order for picking up OBJ. (Not really a mistake but something of note)

^ that brings a thought to my mind.

As someone who watched OBJ and Jarvis Landry at LSU (with their limited passing game), I would not have said OBJ was automatic WR1 material. I thought they would be similar in numbers and that Sammy Watkins was going to blow both of them out of the water.

  1. Montee Ball was going to THE guy for the Broncos when they let Knowshown Moreno walk over to the Dolphins.

  2. Marqise Lee was going to be the most productive WR the Jags added in 2014 (compared to Hurns/Robinson). Jury’s still out on this one.

  3. Breshad Perriman, a first round draft pick from the Ravens with a father who played over a decade in the NFL was going to a clear cut top receiver.

  4. Dorial Green-Beckham was going to be the next Calvin Johnson after a year of NFL level development.

  5. Blake Bortles could be my starting QB.

  6. After realizing Bortles was not the future and with my eye on Deshaun Watson in our rookie draft, I thought I could wait until the third round to grab him.

  7. 2016 Finals. Matthew Berry was going to be wrong and Jarvis Landry would do better than Steve Smith (a game away from retiring) or Marqise Lee (WR2-3), and so would Ty Montgomery on the powerful Green Bay offense. This one stills hurts.

I thought Corey Coleman could have been the best WR in his draft class.
I thought Ameer Abdullah was going to finish top-5 at RB in one of his first 3 years in the league.
I thought Chris Hogan was going to be a top-10 WR in 2018.
I thought Eli Manning would have retired by now.
I thought James Conner wouldn’t start more than 5 NFL games.
I thought Adrian Peterson would have been done by 2016.
I thought the Saints defense could have been top-7 in the league for consecutive years.
I thought the Browns would have had a winning record by 2016 (back in 2014).
I thought Tyreek Hill was going to be a one-year wonder.
I thought Randall Cobb was going to be my WR3 for years when I traded for him.
I thought Colin Kaepernick was going to give Chasen at least 3 more good fantasy seasons…