Hello all! In this installment of J-Cook’s one look, I decided to try my hand at predicting who will/won’t make the playoffs. I used two different methods, and hope to add a third that steals some methods from computational materials science (namely using a probability proportional to a psuedo-Boltzmann factor with energy replaced by average point differential).
The first approach I used was just to see what happens if everybody scores the same points as they did on average in the first 9 weeks.
Standings are below (only with W-L records, sorted by theoretical PF)
- Johnson (9-4)
- Chasen (9-4)
- Amunrud (9-4)
- Charbs (9-4)
- Hart (8-5)
- Jonathan (6-7)
- Stock (5-8)
- Ventura (5-8)
- Paul (3-10)
- Melton (2-11)
The next method I used, which lets us see the effect of the final schedule, uses a 50-50 split odds for each game (as stated above, I plan on introducing a way to change this factor). I used 1000 trials to calculate this figure.
Standings with average W number in ()
- Johnson (8.55)
- Chasen (8.48)
- Jonathan (7.52)
- Amunrud (7.499)
- Charbs (7.486)
- Ventura (6.536)
- Hart (6.472)
- Stock (5.46)
- Paul (3.507)
- Melton (3.489)
I’ve also included the probabilities of each W-L record that was the basis for the above average calculations.
