Week 13 Story Lines (aka Alex was bored)

Alright folks. I did a rough version of this in the general but figured I’d make a post where all the information can be collected in one place, while also using the exact numbers for each team updated to include Week 12’s final scores. Below will be a list of all the teams and their respective paths (or lack thereof) to the playoffs. Some of this information will be redundant, some will be novel, peruse at your leisure.

Ian Charbonnet (TEAM DYNASTY): This team is 100% secured with a playoff berth, and has locked in a first round bye. He can still lose the top spot if he loses next week and Melton wins, with Melton winning by a spread of +47.8 points over Ian’s score. If I win the match-up with Melton, I would need to score +125.6, soooo I’m just going to go ahead and say that’s not going to happen.

Alex Johnson (Hooked on a Thielen): This team is also 100% secured with a playoff berth. Week 13’s game with Melton determines who gets at least the second First round bye, with Melton potentially able to grab the 1st round bye if the above described scenario happens.

Andrew Melton (Team Jujubes): 100% secured playoff berth. Melton’s scenarios for first and second overall seed are already detailed above. To drop below 3rd place (should he lose), Cook would need to outscore him by +27.6. The next closest person that could tie him with wins is Ian A, who would have to score more than 150 points, meaning Melton is relatively secure in the top 4.

Chasen Rodgers (This no Fun(chess)): 100% secured playoff spot. With 7 wins, only 5 other teams can possibly get to 7 or better wins, meaning mathematically Chasen cannot be eliminated. With the fewest PF of any playoff locked team, Chasen’s team has the largest flexibility of where he can end up in the final regular season standings. Should every team that can get to 7 or better wins do so (Ian A and Jon win their respective games) and Chasen loses his game, he would likely end up 6th going into the playoffs. In this scenario, he would need to outscore Ian A by +26 points while still losing. to swap with Ian and take the 5th spot. However, if Chasen wins, he could do as well as 3rd, placing just behind Ian C and whomever wins between Alex and Andrew M (I’d do the point math, but it would be by a margin so silly that it would just be disheartening rather than hope inspiring).

Jonathan Cook (Santa Barbara Sailors): Makes it to the playoffs if
Jon Wins OR
Jon loses and does so by not scoring any points. At all.
Pretty much Jon is hypothetically not locked into playoffs, but based on the sheer PF lead he has on the lowest possible 6 win team (If Ian A wins) then it would be between him, Andrew Ventura, and Mike should mike win. Jon currently has a +79.3 lead over Mike whom is the next closest competition, and a 163.2 PF lead over Ventura, making him a practical lock, while still hypothetically missing playoffs if his team has a complete and utter collapse in Week 13.

Michael Stock (Brandon McManus): Makes it to the playoffs if
Mike Wins AND
Jon loses by -79.4 (Jon owns head-to-head tiebreaker) AND
Andrew Loses or wins by -84 (Andrew won both meetings this year to prevent head-to-head tiebreaker loss) OR
Ian A loses OR
Garrett Wins by -134.6 (garrett owns head-to-head tiebreaker)

Ian Amunrud (Luck Will Play Week 1): Makes it to playoffs if
Ian Wins AND
Mike loses OR wins by -52.3
Ian Loses AND
Mike Wins by -52.3 (Mike owns head-to-head advantage) AND
Andrew V loses OR wins by - 31.7 (Ian has head-to-head advantage) AND
Garrett loses OR wins by -82.3 AND the league figure out what the hell to do because the teams would have split head-to-head.

Andrew Ventura (I Need One TD Dance): Makes it to playoffs if
Andrew wins AND
Ian A loses by -31.8 AND
Mike loses OR wins by -83.9 AND
Garrett loses OR wins by -50.6 (Andrew has head-to-head advantage)
Andrew wins by +163.3 over Jon AND
Ian A loses by -31.8 AND
Mike loses OR wins by -83.9

Garrett Hart (Hemingway’s Horde): Makes it to playoffs if
Garrett wins by +82.4 AND (brace yourself)
Mike loses OR wins by -134.5 AND
Andrew V loses OR wins by -50.7 AND
Jon loses by -213.9 (yeah. That’s not a typo)
Basically, Garrett needs to have the best fantasy football day of league history by a literal mile, and he also needs everyone else to suck. For that reason, although not technically eliminated, Garrett is practically eliminated from playoff contention

Paul Miyake (Mack n Cheesin’ ALL DAY): Eliminated from playoffs. Unfortunately there is no mathematical route for Paul to the playoffs. The lowest in PF and the 5th highest in PA, this season was not kind to Paul’s team as far as match-ups go with a point differential of -184.5, an average of 15.375 points each week. He does look forward to having the first or second overall pick again this year, and barring a big trade all indications point to Paul holding onto his first round draft pick this year.

And there you have it! Every teams path to the playoffs. Some of you are better positioned than others, but the takeaway point is that technically 9/10 teams are still playoff eligible, with 5 of those nine competing for 2 available spots. Best of luck lads, and shall you find favor in the playoff hunt!

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